Trades: Currency Crosses and Commodities

Week Opportunities Prep

Hi, I was meant to share the week ahead prep over the weekend, but I was preoccupied. Without further ado, a quick glance on the economic calendar for the week:

I traded NZDCHF and WTI Crude Oil on Monday(today/yesterday) depending on when the article hits your mailbox. I would like to recall the long NZDCHF trade I shared last week:

I had anticipated a strong NZD, but the timing wasn’t top notch. While I missed most of the upside move, I was able to capture the meat portion of the move today, and holding:

Currently running NZDCHF long

Only 2 trades executed today, WTI Crude Oil and a NZDCHF loss(I closed it manually, primarily because I bought at a premium relative to the Asia trading session activity, so I repositioned in London Session)

I have avoided trading the majors (EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, GBPUSD) primarily because I can’t co-sign a one directional bias even on an intraday basis and due to the high impact news on the economic calendar, I simply alternate into commodities and I trade Crude Oil due to little to no reaction to Currencies economic calendar event, but I do not trade Gold - I rarely trade Gold.

As a result, I focus my effort on commodities or examining the futures contract of individual currencies to pair up weak and strong pairs both from a fundamental and/or technical perspective, which results in my watchlist for the week.

AUSSIE/SWISS FRANC

ForexLive published this dashboard today, not surprising that CHF and GBP is leading the chart as the weak pairs and NZD & AUD leading the strong pairs. All I am doing for the week is pairing them and looking for intraday trades.

Source: ForexLive Session Wraps

The only pair I am holding as a short term trade is NZDCHF, the others just serve as a map for intraday trading. For AUDCHF, I will be hunting for long trade opportunities to see price trade higher into the 0.57850 level

The long thesis on AUDCHF remains valid as long as price finds support above 0.57522 anything below that and I abandon the trade idea.

BRITISH POUND / AUSSIE DOLLAR

I will be hunting for short trade opportunity on GBPAUD. I would like to see price trade lower towards the 1.91826 level and potentially deeper into 1.91600. The shorts on GBP remain valid as long as price stays below 1.93400.

WTI CRUDE OIL

I have enjoyed trading Crude Oil since last week and you can see my trade execution labels on the chart below. The Low of the Day on Crude Oil is at $77.66, I executed my long in London at $77.83 and sold all contracts at $78.23, while the High of the Day is at $78.52 - not bad for a trading day.

Anyways, Crude Oil is finding it difficult to trade above $78.80 per barrel. It has made 5 attempts to trade above $78.80/$79.90 and has failed persistently, and this seems like a clear resistance level, but I do not feel confident in shorting Oil, so I am maintaining my bullish bias into the next trading day.

I expect WTI Crude Oil to find support around the $78.00 level tomorrow and attempt to rally towards $79, however, it might struggle, but nonetheless as long as it stays above $77.40 I still hold my long bias.

Be Safe.