Payrolls, Monthly Open Range
Review of EURUSD Long and Positioning for the Month Open
I was playing Asphalt 9 during my downtime, more specifically the multiplayer section. Now, I noticed I have better car ratings relative to the other players but somehow I end up 2nd or sometimes 5th out of 6th position and I wondered why.
On a replay, I noticed how I started well, leading the rankings but mid-game I slip and lose pace, even with my nitro boost and drifting.
What really occurred to me was that every time I hit a barrier, either head on or while making a turn through a corner is when I lose my pace and other players catch up.
Hence, I decided to really focus and aim towards going as fast as I can without hitting any barrier or little barriers, and I ended up in the 2nd position quite consistently.
Point being:
It’s not just about how fast you are going, but how fast you can go without hitting too many obstacles that draw you back, and you can only fully reduce the obstacles you fall into by first understanding the terrain and moving steadily.
Last week, I wrote my view on the Macro Pulse, and my positioning on EURUSD Long, see details here:
Macro Pulse and Trades in Play
Over the past couple of months and the last quarter, the focus of the market has been on Inflation direction, Growth concerns and the US Fed path on rates more specifically around inflation. I am currently working on an Equity Model which to be honest I have completed and will share that soon. Anyways, back to Macro Pulse check and trades I have in play.
I distributed my long position above 1.08588, and I closed the rest of the position into the market close.
My Cotton long trade on the other hand failed, and that sums it up for last week.
For the week ahead, the Macro pulse hasn’t changed significantly, but we have the following events next week:
If an opportunity present, I would only be active till Wednesday and on the side into Friday.
On my watchlist is a short trade on USDCHF:
I would preferably lean more on the short side here if the USD/CHF offers a repricing towards ninety-fifty levels before absorbing sell-side liquidity at nine figure. If it does make a early move lower into the nine figure levels and it doesn’t trade into 89’60, then I would still be on the board for a repricing higher and a short trade. However, if it slides lower into 89’60 levels I would stay flat.
I do not have any strong views on other currencies at the moment, as I think it would be useful to have the economic data on the US front be released early in the week, EU also have an MPC meeting next week.
That will be all.