Pre-Market Prep: High Impact News, Don't Bet More
FX and Commodities in View
Hi, its the last week in January, earlier in the year, I posted a trade on the Crude Oil short, which I indicated that it didn’t stem from rigorous analysis and it was a wrong position. I haven’t executed any trades this year, I am just opening the shop next week, hence the prep.
Trade Signals: Brent Crude Oil
Hi, I am yet to run a deep analysis across asset class at the beginning of the year, but I am watching a short trade in Brent Crude Oil, below the 71.0 levels on the weekly timeframe. The RR trajectory is below:
Below is the economic calendar ahead of the week. Worthy of note is that the FX market has been largely range bound as clarity on the direction of the US Fed on Rates and how the committee is viewing inflation is anticipated by the market.
As such, I won’t be trading on Wednesday and Friday. I intend to hunt for some intraday trades on Monday, Tuesday and Maybe on Thursday, but I won’t have any open position into Wednesday and Friday, cause I suspect it might throw a wildcard swing in prices, so I prefer to not expose myself to that risk, once the dust settles I can align myself.
FX and Commodities Play Ahead of The Week
On the FX scene, I won’t be pushing myself to get a trade opportunity, but I have my focus on the crosses specifically NZDCHF, although largely range bound intraday, it is moving out of that range lower.
The orderflow on the Daily timeframe is still bearish, I have a low probability in expectations of a move below 0.52000, but my expectations are hinged in the bias of lower prices.
Intraday, I would like to see a retracement into 0.52754 and 0.52631 for a short trade targeting the lower levels at 0.5415, 0.52300, 0.52250. However, if the market opens and gap lower into 0.52415, the probability on my bearish bias falls short, I would prefer if the retracement occurs without the level being touched.
On the Commodities front, my focus is on Crude Oil. We had a large range on Friday, and I think it should push higher into the 84.59/85.0 levels, however, I am also anticipating a retracement into a discount on Monday to set-up a long trade. I don’t think the probability lies in price declining below 84.0 levels, seems to far extended on the downside, hence I would watch our the data evolves into London and New York session on Monday.
Welcome, to the start of my trading year.
Cheers.