Market Color | Final Flow - June 13, 2025
Markets in Flux: Turmoil, Triumphs, and Turning Points
Hello Metamacro Readers!
This week has been a rollercoaster for global markets, with high-stakes trade negotiations, explosive earnings reports, and geopolitical tensions sending shockwaves through stocks, commodities, and currencies.
Weekly Market Recap: Stocks Rally Amid Trade Talks & AI Innovations
This week saw Wall Street deliver a mixed performance, with Alphabet soaring on AI advancements while Microsoft slipped despite strong market gains. The S&P 500 climbed 33.95 points, the Nasdaq advanced 125 points, and the Dow Jones added 119.44 points, reflecting optimism across sectors.
Tech stocks were in focus as Apple disappointed investors at WWDC with vague AI announcements, while Tesla surged on growing momentum behind its robotaxi rollout. Meanwhile, GameStop’s earnings beat expectations but missed revenue forecasts, stirring market reactions.
Global trade remained a key driver, as U.S.-China negotiations yielded a framework for easing supply chain restrictions, but market response was muted. OPEC+ struggled to meet production forecasts, keeping oil prices higher than expected, while U.S. and Mexico neared a deal to lift steel tariffs.
Economic indicators painted a mixed picture, with the U.S. April jobs report showing wage growth acceleration but declining full-time employment and labor participation. Despite lingering uncertainties, markets surged, with the S&P 500 approaching a record high and Microsoft reclaiming its spot as the world’s most valuable company, surpassing Nvidia.
U.S.-China Geneva Deal Reworked, Secures Rare Earths & Tariff Structure
The Geneva trade agreement between the United States and China, initially finalized last month, has been restructured, reinforcing economic commitments between both nations.
Under the revised terms, China has pledged to supply rare earth materials, including magnets, upfront—a move critical for U.S. industries reliant on advanced manufacturing, technology, and defense. In exchange, the United States will continue welcoming Chinese students into its colleges and universities, maintaining academic and research collaboration.
Additionally, the U.S. will uphold its tariff structure on Chinese imports, totaling 55% overall:
25% from Trump’s first term
20% under the current term
10% from the fentanyl-related penalty
This revamped agreement aims to strengthen trade stability while addressing national security concerns, particularly in sectors dependent on strategic minerals. The new framework underscores Washington’s evolving trade approach as it navigates relations with Beijing.
U.S. Inflation Slows as CPI Falls Below Expectations
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows inflation cooling, with headline CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year (y/y)—matching some forecasts but below the 2.5% consensus and significantly lower than the previous 2.9% reading.
On a monthly basis, CPI edged up just 0.1% (+0.081% unrounded), coming in softer than anticipated, reinforcing signs of continued disinflation. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.8% y/y, slightly under the expected 2.9%, with monthly core inflation also at 0.1% (+0.130% unrounded).
Despite earlier concerns that tariff-driven price hikes could spur inflation, so far, these fears have not materialized, providing some relief for policymakers and market participants. The Fed’s next move will be closely watched as inflation trends continue to shape economic expectations.
Boeing Shares Drop as Air India 787 Crash Marks First Fatal Incident
Boeing (BA) stock fell more than 4% on Thursday following a tragic Air India crash involving a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, marking the first fatal accident for the aircraft model since its debut in 2011.
The plane, delivered to Air India in 2014, was carrying 242 passengers when it crashed shortly after takeoff near Ahmedabad airport, en route to Gatwick Airport in London. According to aviation tracking site FlightRadar24, this incident is a significant blow to Boeing, which has been expanding its order book under CEO Ortberg’s leadership.
Before the crash, Boeing shares had been up over 20% this year, reflecting strong investor confidence. However, the accident now raises concerns about safety, regulatory scrutiny, and potential impacts on future aircraft orders.
Oracle Soars to Record High as Strong AI Cloud Demand Drives Growth
Oracle (ORCL) surged more than 13% on Thursday, setting a new record closing price of $199.87, after reporting better-than-expected fiscal Q4 results. During intraday trading, the stock briefly hit an all-time high of $202.44, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.
The tech giant's adjusted revenue reached $15.9 billion, exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $15.6 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.70, surpassing the expected $1.64. On the back of solid financial results, Oracle raised its annual revenue outlook, citing robust demand for its AI-powered cloud services.
This upbeat earnings report underscores Oracle’s expanding role in the AI cloud sector, reinforcing its position as a major player in enterprise solutions and fueling continued market optimism.
Oil Prices Surge Over 10% as Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates
Global oil markets experienced a sharp surge late Thursday as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude neared $77 per barrel and Brent, the international benchmark, climbed past $78. The spike came in response to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, marking a major escalation in Middle East tensions and raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.
This sudden price movement reflects heightened geopolitical risk, with traders reacting swiftly to the prospect of regional instability affecting global energy markets. As uncertainty surrounding the conflict deepens, market participants will closely monitor developments in diplomatic responses and potential retaliatory actions.
Markets Rattle as Israeli Airstrikes on Iran Send Shockwaves Through Global Economy
Global financial markets faced a jolt late Thursday after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran, intensifying geopolitical tensions and triggering a wave of risk-off sentiment. The move, aimed at curbing what Israel described as Iran’s nuclear ambitions, led to explosions across Tehran, according to initial reports.
The military escalation prompted U.S. stock futures to tumble sharply in after-hours trading:
Dow Jones futures fell 1.5%
S&P 500 futures dropped 1.6%
Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.7%
Commodity markets responded swiftly. Crude oil prices surged by 8%, with West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) climbing as fears over supply disruptions from OPEC+’s third-largest producer rippled through the market. Meanwhile, investors fled to safety, pushing gold (GC=F) up 1%, reinforcing its status as a traditional haven in times of crisis.
Israel’s defense minister also declared a state of emergency, further heightening investor unease. The situation remains fluid, with market participants watching closely for retaliatory responses, potential supply chain disruptions, and broader implications for global inflation and monetary policy
Economic Calendar
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the latest period released indicates inflation easing, with headline CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.5% consensus forecast and significantly lower than the previous 2.9% reading.
Monthly CPI edged up just 0.1%, reflecting softer-than-expected price increases and reinforcing the trend of continued disinflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 2.9%, with monthly core inflation also at 0.1%.
Wrapping up the week, the University of Michigan’s initial consumer sentiment survey for June will be released today, offering a first look at how Americans feel about the economy, inflation, and future financial conditions.
Earning Calendar
GameStop kicked off the earnings cycle on Tuesday, reporting stronger-than-expected profits but falling short on revenue expectations. While its bottom-line performance impressed, the revenue miss raised concerns about the company’s ability to sustain growth momentum.
Oracle followed with an impressive earnings beat on Wednesday, signaling strong demand for its cloud and enterprise solutions. The tech giant posted adjusted revenue of $15.9 billion, surpassing the projected $15.6 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) hit $1.70, exceeding forecasts of $1.64. This stellar performance reinforced investor confidence in Oracle’s AI-driven cloud expansion.
The week’s earnings reports will wrap up with Adobe, which is set to disclose its latest results soon. Investors will be watching closely to see how the software giant’s performance aligns with market expectations, particularly in the evolving AI and digital design space.
Equities Color
S&P 500 Index(SPX)
The S&P 500 index fell 18.75 points, settling at 6,026.25, as global markets reacted to heightened geopolitical tensions and aviation concerns.
The downturn was largely driven by Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, which sent shockwaves through investor sentiment, raising fears of potential economic disruptions and energy market volatility. Additionally, the tragic Air India crash added to market uncertainty, with its impact rippling across the aviation and aerospace sectors, particularly affecting Boeing’s stock performance.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index(DJI)
The Dow fell 115 points, settling at 42,796, as global markets reacted to heightened geopolitical tensions and aviation concerns.
The downturn was largely driven by Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, which sent shockwaves through investor sentiment, raising fears of potential economic disruptions and energy market volatility.
US 100 Index(NDQ)
The NASDAQ Composite declined by 75.50 points, closing at 21,887, as investors reacted to mounting geopolitical uncertainty and concerns surrounding the aviation sector.
The downturn was primarily driven by Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iran, which sent shockwaves through global markets, raising fears of potential economic disruptions and heightened volatility.
FX SNAPSHOT
The U.S. dollar tumbled on Thursday, pressured by higher-than-expected jobless claims for the third consecutive week and a lower-than-anticipated Producer Price Index (PPI) reading. These factors contributed to renewed selling pressure, triggering significant movements across currency markets.
The euro surged to 1.1631, marking its highest level in three-and-a-half years, following a decisive break above the 1.1500 resistance, which had previously been a tough barrier. The momentum-driven rally was accompanied by increased bids and stop orders, reinforcing the euro’s strength.
Broad dollar weakness extended to other major currencies:
GBP/USD climbed to its highest since 2022, briefly surpassing the June 4 peak before retreating.
USD/CAD hit its lowest level since October, fueled by growing optimism over U.S.-Canada trade negotiations.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This week has been a rollercoaster for global markets, with high-stakes trade negotiations, explosive earnings reports, and geopolitical tensions sending shockwaves through stocks, commodities, and currencies.
The S&P 500 surged toward record highs, fueled by optimism in tech and AI, while Microsoft reclaimed its throne as the world’s most valuable company. Tesla charged forward on robotaxi ambitions, but Apple left investors disappointed with vague AI promises at WWDC.
Yet, it wasn’t all upward momentum—markets were rattled by Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, sparking oil price surges, and Boeing’s stock took a nosedive after the first fatal crash involving an Air India 787 Dreamliner. Meanwhile, inflation cooled more than expected, challenging prior fears that tariffs would drive prices higher.
With investors bracing for more volatility and central banks recalibrating policies, the question remains: Where do the markets go from here?
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