Friday: End of Week Trade Dollar, Crude Oil, Yen and Swiss Franc

Views and Anticipation

Hi, would like to share my thoughts at the last trading day of the week and trade opportunities I will be stalking for.

The Dollar

On the Dollar, we had the Core CPI range that traded into a daily support level and rallying back into the median level of the Core CPI range from November 2023. On the heels of Retail Sales release on Thursday, DXY retraced back into the CPI range created on Thursday.

From here, I suspect the Dollar could push higher to fill the previous Core CPI range in November, and if it finds momentum(all other macro factors considered) we could trade above 105.800

Alternatively if the Dollar intends to give up the current range to keep trading lower, we could see a directional move into 102.397 although not expected to occur today.

I am currently stalking for a long Dollar trade, as long we remain above 103.400

Crude Oil

Continuing yesterday’s momentum, I would be looking for long trade today that could push Oil to $79 per barrel. However, I think it might find some difficulty trading above $78.6. Nonetheless, a trade setup for me would be price maintaining ground above $77.32

USDJPY

In line with bullish Dollar view, I have a USDJPY long bias to rally above 151.00 and potentially into 151.400, with price completing the CPI range yesterday, I don’t see any room for it to go lower currently.

USDCHF

A little bit tricky on USDCHF, price filled the CPI range after falling slightly short of a weekly timeframe resistance level. It trade slightly deeper into the CPI range. Although, support stands at 0.87728, I am also maintaining a long thesis on this to rally above the weekly resistance level, and this view remain valid as along we stay above the 0.87263 level.

The above analysis, serves as a map on how I intend to navigate the market today, it doesn’t imply I will be executing on all of them, I would only execute if i see something that fits my model amongst the listed pairs.

But with the above insight and price levels, you could build your own narrative and your framework for execution.