Equities Strategy | 15th June 2025

Week Ahead Views

Good day, MetaMacro readers!

Here’s your views ahead of the week on the Equities market:

• Equities News and Economic Calendar

• Macro Hypothesis

• Index Flows

• Watchlist for the Week

---

Equities News and Economic Calendar

** Oil traders brace for turmoil as Iran crisis imperils supply

** Israeli, Saudi Stocks fall as middle east conflict worsens

** Investors choose safe havens, oil over equities as Middle East erupts

** The attacks in the Middle East could make it harder for the Fed to cut rate

Macro Hypothesis

The current macro risks in place are:

• Geopolitical Risk

• Volatility Risk

• Commodity Risk

Due to Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran, geopolitical risks has ticked higher which also contributes to increased volatility, as such we will be actively monitoring the VIX, MOVE and FX Vol Index during the week.

While we have seen some initial spillover effect into the Commodity market specifically on energy products and precious metals as safe haven sentiment leads into the weekend. There hasn’t been any pave way to a resolution in terms of peace talk or cease fire over the weekend, so this sentiment is expected to dominate into the week.

In terms of policy risk, we do not expect any change in policy stance by the Fed, of course due to the geopolitical tension and the increase in energy prices, concerns would be around this variable, and the Fed would most likely hold rates at current level as they assess the situation, to some extent we think the market should have priced this in.

Index Flows

Macro Index Flows

Given the geopolitical context in play, we didn’t exactly see a rush to purchase US Treasury as a hedge for macro uncertainty, however, it does seem that the long end of curve, continues to price in higher inflation expectations.

Currently, our model is focused on tracking equities pricing relative to the risk in play on the macro basis. Our views emphasise the probability of downside price action to 5,840 - 5,800 on the SPX and 21,000 - 21,200 on the NDX

Equity Index Flows & Sector Watchlist

S&P500 and NDX still remain resilient to the upside, US30 is exceedingly weak, alongside the Russell.

• Premium on SPX and NDX for shorts

• Discount in US30 and RTY for longs

Essentially, if we have a bearish view for the week ahead, we believe there is more to extract from SPX and NDX to the downside compared to US30 and RTY, and vice versa if the market reprices all the geopolitical risk in place.

For the week ahead, our model churns out the following stance for the sector watchlist up until midweek.

Watchlist for the Week

We will share technical levels for the tickers that pique our interest over the week, and if there is any change in the sector watchlist, we will also send out an update to the equities strategy.